Nigeria’s election campaign begins with Tinubu facing a reform test

Rising costs fuel anger, but Tinubu’s machinery and opposition divisions may shape the race. Abuja, Nigeria – Every morning, Shukurat Oyedele unlocks her small plastic goods shop near Offa Garage in Ilorin, north-central Nigeria, even when she expects few customers. On the quietest days, the 43-year-old sits outside reading the Quran while waiting for buyers. Her business once attracted a steady flow of customers. But as prices have risen, many Nigerians have been forced to cut back on purchases they once considered routine. “People are interested in buying the things I sell, but they have become really expensive.

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Scoop News DeskNigeria · Published Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTCUpdated Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC

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The APC controls the federal government and has built one of Nigeria’s most extensive political networks, giving Tinubu an advantage in grassroots mobilisation. “The APC’s structural advantage is not popularity, but organisation,” Nwanze said. “The party controls the federal government and extensive political structures across many states.” Ojeniyi said those networks matter because Nigerian elections are fought through local political structures as much as national campaigns. “I think there is a danger of viewing the 2027 election purely as a referendum on Tinubu,” she said. “It is also a referendum on the quality of Nigeria’s political opposition and, more broadly, on whether our democracy is producing meaningful choices for citizens.” For voters such as Oyedele and Thomas Eneji, the election will ultimately be judged by whether daily life improves, not by political promises.

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