Tactical voting at next election could push Reform into fourth place, poll finds

Polling suggests Andy Burnham is attracting progressives back to Labour, motivated by desire to stop Nigel Farage • How Labour’s majority depends on five progressive voter types – in charts Progressive voters could push Reform UK into fourth place and put Labour within touching distance of a majority if tactical voting is widespread at the next election, a major poll has found. Andy Burnham is beginning to attract a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour, motivated by a desire to stop Nigel Farage , the results suggest. The poll of more than 8,000 voters, shared with the Guardian, suggests a widespread openness to voting tactically. It also shows the prime minister’s most successful electoral strategy would be to unite the centre and left bloc of voters, while the right remains split. It would be a marked contrast to the tactics of Keir Starmer’s Labour before the 2024 general election, when the party tried to attract more conservative older voters. Such a tactic would be likely to unsettle some in Labour, given the same strategy was deployed for Ed Miliband’s failed bid in 2015 , albeit before Reform’s arrival as a major electoral force.

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